Quantifying Uncertainties in Global Growth Forecasts / Ohnsorge, Franziska L
Contributor(s): Resource type: Ressourcentyp: Buch (Online)Book (Online)Language: English Series: World Bank E-Library ArchivePublisher: Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2016Description: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p)Additional physical formats: Erscheint auch als: Quantifying Uncertainties in Global Growth Forecasts. Druck-Ausgabe Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2016DOI: DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7770Online resources: Summary: This paper presents a procedure to construct an asymmetric fan chart of risks around global growth forecasts. The distribution of risks around global growth forecasts is estimated by weighting information extracted from option pricing and survey-based measures of risk factors of global growth. The weights are estimated using a vector autoregression analysis. The empirical estimates indicate that forecast uncertainty has increased since January 2016, while the balance of risks to global growth has tilted to the downsidePPN: PPN: 172486467XPackage identifier: Produktsigel: ZDB-1-WBANo physical items for this record