Japan's challenging debt dynamics / Yvan Guillemette; Jan Strasky

By: Contributor(s): Resource type: Ressourcentyp: Buch (Online)Book (Online)Language: English Series: OECD. OECD Economics Department working papers ; 1085Publisher: Paris : OECD, Economics Dep., 2013Description: Online-Ressource (16 S.) : graph. DarstSubject(s): Genre/Form: DOI: DOI: 10.1787/5k41w045v6mp-enOnline resources: Summary: This working paper presents the background and the details of the simulations behind Box 1.4 of the May 2013 OECD Economic Outlook. A small simulation model is used to evaluate the contribution that the three pillars of the government’s strategy – fiscal consolidation, growth-boosting structural reforms and higher inflation – could make to reversing the rise in Japan’s public debt ratio, currently about 230% of GDP. The findings indicate that fiscal consolidation amounting to around 10 percentage points of GDP is necessary by 2020 to eliminate the primary deficit, as targeted in the current medium-term fiscal strategy. With moderately higher growth coming from increased female labour force participation and higher productivity growth, as well as inflation gradually rising to 2% thanks to unconventional monetary policy measures, the debt ratio would likely be put on a resolute downward trajectory by the end of this decade, although it is likely to remain around 200% of GDP in 2035.PPN: PPN: 776576593Package identifier: Produktsigel: ZDB-13-SOC | ZDB-13-SOC-ebook
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