Understanding uncertainty / Dennis V. Lindley

Von:

Lindley, Dennis V, 1923-2013 [aut]

Resource type: Ressourcentyp: Buch (Online)Buch (Online)Verlagsnummer: EB00067065Sprache: Englisch Reihen: Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics SeriesVerlag: New York : John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, 2013Auflage: Rev. ed. (Online-Ausg.)Beschreibung: Online-Ressource (1 online resource.)ISBN:

1118650239
9781118650158
1118650158
9781306208376
9781118650110
9781118650233

Schlagwörter:

QA273

Online-Ressourcen:

Zugang im Netz des KIT

Zusammenfassung: Praise for the First Edition "...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty." -Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made. Featuring new material, the Revised Edition remains the go-to guide for uncertainty and decision making, providing further applications at an accessible level including: A critical study of transitivity, a basic concept in probability A discussion of how the failure of the financial sector to use the proper approach to uncertainty may have contributed to the recent recession A consideration of betting, showing that a bookmaker's odds are not expressions of probability Applications of the book's thesis to statistics A demonstration that some techniques currently popular in statistics, like significance tests, may be unsound, even seriously misleading, because they violate the rules of probability Understanding Uncertainty, Revised Edition is ideal for students studying probability or statistics and for anyone interested in one of the most fascinating and vibrant fields of study in contemporary science and mathematics.Zusammenfassung: Understanding Uncertainty -- Contents -- Preface -- Prologue -- Chapter 1: Uncertainty -- 1.1. Introduction -- 1.2. Examples -- 1.3. Suppression of Uncertainty -- 1.4. The Removal of Uncertainty -- 1.5. The Uses of Uncertainty -- 1.6. The Calculus of Uncertainty -- 1.7. Beliefs -- 1.8. Decision Analysis -- Chapter 2: Stylistic Questions -- 2.1. Reason -- 2.2. Unreason -- 2.3. Facts -- 2.4. Emotion -- 2.5. Normative and Descriptive Approaches -- 2.6. Simplicity -- 2.7. Mathematics -- 2.8. Writing -- 2.9. Mathematics Tutorial -- Chapter 3: Probability -- 3.1. Measurement -- 3.2. Randomness -- 3.3. A Standard for Probability -- 3.4. Probability -- 3.5. Coherence -- 3.6. Belief -- 3.7. Complementary Event -- 3.8. Odds -- 3.9. Knowledge Base -- 3.10. Examples -- 3.11. Retrospect -- Chapter 4: Two Events -- 4.1. Two Events -- 4.2. Conditional Probability -- 4.3. Independence -- 4.4. Association -- 4.5. Examples -- 4.6. Supposition and Fact -- 4.7. Seeing and Doing -- Chapter 5: The Rules of Probability -- 5.1. Combinations of Events -- 5.2. Addition Rule -- 5.3. Multiplication Rule -- 5.4. The Basic Rules -- 5.5. Examples -- 5.6. Extension of the Conversation -- 5.7. Dutch Books -- 5.8. Scoring Rules -- 5.9. Logic Again -- 5.10. Decision Analysis -- 5.11. The Prisoners' Dilemma -- 5.12. The Calculus and Reality -- 5.13. Closure -- Chapter 6: Bayes Rule -- 6.1. Transposed Conditionals -- 6.2. Learning -- 6.3. Bayes Rule -- 6.4. Medical Diagnosis -- 6.5. Odds Form of Bayes Rule -- 6.6. Forensic Evidence -- 6.7. Likelihood Ratio -- 6.8. Cromwell's Rule -- 6.9. A Tale of Two Urns -- 6.10. Ravens -- 6.11. Diagnosis and Related Matters -- 6.12. Information -- Chapter 7: Measuring Uncertainty -- 7.1. Classical Form -- 7.2. Frequency Data -- 7.3. Exchangeability -- 7.4. Bernoulli Series -- 7.5. De Finetti's Result -- 7.6. Large Numbers.PPN: PPN: 788406841Package identifier: Produktsigel: ZDB-26-MYL | ZDB-30-PAD | ZDB-30-PQE | BSZ-30-PQE-K1DLR

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