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The business forecasting deal : exposing myths, eliminating bad practices, providing practical solutions / Michael Gilliland

By: Resource type: Ressourcentyp: Buch (Online)Book (Online)Language: English Series: Wiley & SAS business series | Wiley and SAS Business Ser ; v.27Publisher: Hoboken, N.J : Wiley, c2010Copyright date: ©2010Edition: Online-AusgDescription: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (xx, 252 p.)) : illISBN:
  • 9781282683242
  • 1282683241
  • 9780470769638
Subject(s): Additional physical formats: 9780470574430 | 0470574437 | 9780470769638 | 1282683233 | Erscheint auch als: The business forecasting deal. Druck-Ausgabe Hoboken, NJ : John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2010. XX, 252 SeitenDDC classification:
  • 658.4/0355 22
  • 658.40355
RVK: RVK: QH 237LOC classification:
  • HD30.27
Online resources: Summary: Practical-nontechnical-solutions to the problems of business forecasting Written in a nontechnical style, this book provides practical solutions to common business forecasting problems, showing you how to think about business forecasting in the context of uncertainty, randomness and process performance. Addresses the philosophical foundations of forecasting Raises awareness of fundamental issues usually overlooked in pursuit of the perfect forecast Introduces a new way to think about business forecasting, focusing on process efficiency and the elimination of worst practices Provides practical approaches for the non-statistical problems forecasters face Illustrates Forecast Value Added (FVA) Analysis for identifying waste in the forecasting process Couched in the context of uncertainty, randomness, and process performance, this book offers new, innovative ideas for resolving your business forecasting problems.Summary: The Business Forecasting Deal: Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions -- Contents -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- Prologue -- Chapter 1: Fundamental Issues in Business Forecasting -- THE PROBLEM OF INDUCTION -- THE REALITIES OF BUSINESS FORECASTING -- THE CONTEST -- WHAT IS DEMAND? -- CONSTRAINED FORECAST -- DEMAND VOLATILITY -- INHERENT VOLATILITY AND ARTIFICIAL VOLATILITY -- EVILS OF VOLATILITY -- EVALUATING FORECAST PERFORMANCE -- EMBARKING ON IMPROVEMENT -- NOTES -- Chapter 2: Worst Practices in Business Forecasting: Part 1 -- WORST PRACTICES IN THE MECHANICS OF FORECASTING -- MODEL "OVERFITTING" AND "PICK-BEST" SELECTION -- CONFUSING MODEL FIT WITH FORECAST ACCURACY -- ACCURACY EXPECTATIONS AND PERFORMANCE GOALS -- FAILURE TO USE A NAÏVE MODEL OR ASSESS FORECAST VALUE ADDED -- FORECASTING HIERARCHIES -- OUTLIER HANDLING -- NOTES -- Chapter 3: Worst Practices in Business Forecasting: Part 2 -- WORST PRACTICES IN THE PROCESS AND PRACTICES OF FORECASTING -- POLITICS OF FORECASTING -- BLAMING THE FORECAST -- ADDING VARIATION TO DEMAND -- EVANGELICAL FORECASTING -- OVERINVESTING IN THE FORECASTING FUNCTION -- FORECASTING PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT AND REPORTING -- FORECASTING SOFTWARE SELECTION -- EDITORIAL COMMENT ON FORECASTING PRACTICES -- NOTES -- Chapter 4: Forecast Value Added Analysis -- WHAT IS FORECAST VALUE ADDED? -- THE NAÏVE FORECAST -- WHY IS FVA IMPORTANT? -- FVA ANALYSIS: STEP-BY-STEP -- FURTHER APPLICATION OF FVA ANALYSIS -- CASE STUDIES -- SUMMARY: THE LEAN APPROACH TO FORECASTING -- NOTES -- Chapter 5: Forecasting without History -- TYPICAL NEW PRODUCT FORECASTING SITUATIONS -- NEW PRODUCT FORECASTING BY STRUCTURED ANALOGY -- ORGANIZATIONAL REALIGNMENT -- SUMMARY -- NOTES -- Chapter 6: Alternative Approaches to the Problems of Business Forecasting -- STATISTICAL APPROACH -- COLLABORATIVE APPROACH.PPN: PPN: 807311952Package identifier: Produktsigel: ZDB-26-MYL | ZDB-30-PAD | ZDB-30-PBE | ZDB-30-PQE
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