Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries : how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design? / Adeline Delavande
Contributor(s): Resource type: Ressourcentyp: Buch (Online)Book (Online)Language: English Publisher: Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2010Description: Online-Ressource (35 p)Additional physical formats: Delavande, Adeline: Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries DOI: DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5458Online resources: Summary: Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. The authors conducted an experiment in India that tested the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support (pre-determined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. The results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design. Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves accuracyPPN: PPN: 834968436Package identifier: Produktsigel: ZDB-1-WBA | ZDB-110-WBLNo physical items for this record
Reproduktion, 2010. (World Bank eLibrary) |2010||||||||||